The U.S. economy is in the doldrums. The Great Recession seems to be here to stay. Unemployment rate remains above 9%. Big companies are sitting on piles of cash but are not hiring, Debt-ceiling gridlock has paralyzed Washington. Job prospects for new graduates look dim. Given the status quo, what is the probability that President Obama will be reelected in 2012? College statistics students reflect on the issue.
Sarah thinks Obama will be reelected because a majority of Americans do not see any viable Republican candidate who can pull us out of the current economic crisis. But Obama has lost many independent voters from 2008 because he has not met their expectations, particularly in employment and education. Many jobs have moved to India, Mexico and China. Sarah thinks Obama’s chances are just over 50% if the GOP continues its negative and unfair policiesArok is sure Obama will win a second term. He saved us from an economic collapse and passed a universal healthcare plan. He got Bin Laden and brought honesty and credibility to government. He is set to end the terrible Iraq war. Conservatives blame him for high unemployment but the fact remains that Obama got many more things right than he got wrong. Arok estimates that Obama will win by 55%, with a margin of error of 5%.
Rodney believes that Obama’s mediocre approval rating is due to the high unemployment rate. On July 17, the Rasmussen Report showed that 25% of the nation’s voters strongly approved and 42% strongly disapproved of Obama’s performance. On the same day, the Gallup Poll showed a 44% approval and 49% disapproval rating. However, factors such as sample size, margin of error, randomness or distribution of the sample and other important details are not provided for most polled data. The unemployment rate, fuel price, healthcare and food costs in the nine months prior to election-day will play a larger role in the public’s perception than current polls may indicate.
Nguyen thinks it will be very tough for Obama to win. The president talks more than he acts. He is more words and less deeds. Still, Nguyen worries about a non-Obama presidency. She also feels that four years go by too fast. For a president to really get things done require eight years, so Obama should be given one more chance. He inherited a mess and there is just so much he can do in a mere four years. However, even within this time frame, he has done quite a few impressive things. Removing Bin Laden was one of them.
Amanda is disappointed that President Obama doesn’t have a solid plan to improve the economy. The recession is still here four years after he took office. George Bush was elected a second term in spite of his disastrous policies, proving that being the worst president of all time can still get you reelected. Obama has certainly been better than Bush but he has not fulfilled his promise of “change.” Obama’s margin of win in 2008 was a significant 7%. Amanda predicts Obama will win at least 52% of the votes in 2012 but she hopes that, after the experience of four years, the president has a better sense of how he can accomplish his promises. Amanda will campaign for Obama among her friends if nitwits like Palin contest the election.
Winnie thinks the probability of Obama’s winning a second term is high. He is set to pull our troops out of Afghanistan and Iraq by 2012. That will get him the support of the majority of military personnel. His successful effort to bring some sort of universal healthcare to Americans is a noteworthy achievement. The Great Recession is not his fault and many American will remember that on the day they go to the polls.
Beckwith has no doubt that Obama will be reelected in 2012. The crushing national debt has been accumulating over several decades. The economic crisis is mostly due to George Bush. But the most important reason why Obama will win is the complete lack of viable Republican candidates. McCain is too old. Palin simply isn’t qualified. Romney has no base among the poor and the middle-class. Obama has done more good for the country – salvaged its reputation, for one – in one term than Bush was able to do in two. Beckwith wants Americans to have faith in Obama and elect him for another four years in 2012.
Bella puts the probability of Obama winning at over 60% “because American people know that he has been trying very hard to improve the economy.” However, Obama has to help people who have fallen behind, particularly the Hispanics. He has to stop immigration raids and not allow the police to brutalize immigrants who have sacrificed so much to make America what it is now. President Obama is limited in what he can do because Republicans oppose him on every issue without considering its merit.
Kimberly thinks that the economy will doom Obama. She puts his chances at 10% for a second term. That’s because many Americans are ignorant of facts and blame Obama for the terrible economy that he inherited from George Bush. They are stubborn. They have tunnel vision. They ignore facts. Besides, his being an African-American keeps many racists from voting for him, particularly in the so-called red states. Kimberly is scared by some of the hate-mongering blogs she has read on the Web. “They hate him simply because of the color of his skin.” There are also many uneducated voters who rely only on their biased opinions and those of others. Obama failed to bring about a comprehensive immigration reform and has angered many minority groups. For all these reasons, Kimberly doesn’t see how Obama will be elected a second time as President.
Edgar shares Kimberly’s pessimistic assessment. High unemployment will be the deciding factor. Obama promised job opportunities for millions but nothing has happened. More Americans are out of work now than when he took office. He has denied a decent life to many Mexican-American immigrants by trampling over their rights and deporting them. College students face a very bleak future. They are forced to take menial jobs far below their education. Unless President Obama can quickly turn things around, Kimberly is sure he will be defeated in 2012.
For Allyssa, President Obama is a person who has been trying to “turn lemons into lemonade.” He is doing his best to create jobs but the greedy CEOs want to maximize profit by squeezing existing employees and not hiring new ones. Obama is willing to compromise but Republicans aren’t. Republicans want to cut funding for education and social security and give tax breaks to the rich. They know they are hurting the country but they don’t care. They don’t care about struggling Americans. “I can barely pay for classes at a university. I have to pay big bucks to get an education. The cost of tuition keeps going up but good jobs have dried up. Only Obama can change this. No Republican can or wants to.”