UPDATE: Sun 31 July 2011 / 0800
The NHC says there is a “near 100 percent chance” for a large area of low pressure (see below) to become a tropical depression or storm soon. A complete update including potential tracks will be issued later today as information becomes available.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says a large area of low pressure over the western Atlantic might become the 5th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season by Monday afternoon. If so, its name will be “Emily”. The NHC says the odds of its development within the next 48 hours are “high”, at better than even money.
Tropical Storm “Don” was a very compact storm while this new area of concern is quite broad and represents a substantial threat to become a medium to large hurricane.
The steering currents will drive this low pressure area WNW towards the Caribbean. It should move past the Lesser Antilles and toward the general direction of Puerto Rico.
It’s far too early to tell whether this represents a threat to Texas, but a general motion toward the Gulf of Mexico is expected based on the steering currents and forecasts.