updated 8:45pm CTZ 30Jul2011
Churning out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Emily is trying to develop. The National Hurricane Center is giving her a 90% chance of becoming the 5th tropical depression of the 2011 hurricane season.
The system has a low surface pressure and favorable conditions that will allow the it to continue to organize and grow into tropical depression #5 and may allow it to grow into Tropical Storm Emily. If the environmental conditions continue, this system will have enough warm water fuel and time to generate into Hurricane Emily.
The low pressure system is located some 900 miles east of the Windward Islands and is moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. The northeastern Caribbean Islands are in her path and preparations should already have begun.
This system has potential to push through the eastern Caribbean Islands and make a more northern turn as some of the models are projecting. How soon this turn is made will help determine whether the system will make landfall in the United States or not.
The system could also continue to make a track towards Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico. Both the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are higher than normal which helps feed the growth of hurricanes. Upper level winds may be able to cripple its growth but this is doubtful as more time progresses.
The 2011 Hurricane Season Names: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney