CIS July 2021
CIS vote estimate (% of the total valid vote)
The PSOE has managed to halt the downward trend reflected by the Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas and has recovered part of the electoral ground ceded in recent months, as reflected in the CIS barometer for July, published on Wednesday, which also reflects a significant drop in the vote estimate of Unidas Podemos, which has lost almost a point and a half. On the right, the PP slows the rise that has been accumulating for months and loses a few tenths to Vox.
The July barometer, the last of the political year, is the first to include the effects of the government crisis that Pedro Sánchez executed on July 10. According to the institute led by José Félix Tezanos, the Socialists are profitable part of these changes and go from 27.4% of the last barometer to 28.6% of this, a rise of more than one percentage point in vote estimation and that puts them above the results of the last general, a psychological barrier that had lost in the last two deliveries of the CIS.
The PP, on the other hand, which had been recovering in the polls for several months, has lost a few tenths of a percentage point compared to the last survey. It goes from 23.9% in June to 23.4% in this one. Pablo Casado’s party had been on an upward trend since March, when they hit their floor with 17.9% in voting intentions, and now they see it slowed in part by a slight recovery of Vox. Of course, the popular continue installed in a comfortable cushion that puts them above their results of 10N, when they took 20.8% of the votes.
The recovery of Vox is very slight and places them still far from their best results in the CIS barometers and below the data of 10N. The far-right party would take 13.6% of the votes, six tenths more than a month ago. Santiago Abascal’s party has reached an estimated vote of 15.4% in the CIS, higher than their election results, which were 15.1% of the votes.
The fourth place is held by United Podemos, a party that has long since lost the opportunity to compete with Vox for third place in the polls.The CIS arometers and that this month also suffers a significant drop. The party now led by Ione Belarra managed to climb in June to 12% in vote estimation, a figure that did not reach for a year, but it has not lasted long. This month the CIS gives an estimate of 10.6%, almost a point and a half less.
The ranking of the major parties is closed, as always, by Ciudadanos. The formation of Inés Arrimadas has been conjured this weekend at a convention to try to turn the polls, but it will not be easy. This month’s CIS predicts that it would obtain 5.5% of the votes if elections were held today, a figure similar to those of recent months and far removed from its best data of the year (in September it had 10.6%) and still below its results on 10N, when Albert Rivera sank the party to 6.8%.
The CIS barometer published Wednesday has been prepared through 3,798 interviews that were conducted between 2 and 15 July. The barometer also reflects important changes in the direct intention to vote, what each respondent says they will vote when asked before their answer is crossed with other variables, such as voting memory or sympathy. In this variable, the distance between PSOE and PP becomes much more evident.
Diaz is the best valued and Arrimadas overtakes Casado
The second vice-president of the Government, Yolanda Díaz, repeats for the second barometer as the best valued leader, with a score of 4.7 and a rise of one tenth compared to a month ago that brings her closer to the pass. Behind is the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, with a score of 4.3.
The leader of Más País, Íñigo Errejón, remains in third position, but below him there has been a change of positions. Inés Arrimadas has overtaken Pablo Casado, although only by a tenth, and leaves the president of the PP in fifth place. The table closes, as always, Santiago Abascal with a score of 2.8.