“The elections will be on 27 November 2022”, said the spokesman of the Andalusian Executive, Elías Bendodo, in May, in view of the possibility of an early election. But the constant threats of rupture of Vox, which leave in evidence a government in minority, and the proximity of the end of the legislature (which should expire in December at the latest) have caused that from the government of Juan Manuel Moreno is already playing with the idea of convening the regional elections in advance.
The possibility is gaining strength in the Palace of San Telmo. The date given by Bendodo is no longer fiercely defended and although it insists on exhausting the mandate, the parliamentary spokesman of the PP, José Antonio Nieto, has paved the way this week by considering that the call for elections in June or October 2022 “would not be an advance as such”. The Government defends that it would be a mere “technical advance”.
Moreno does not seem willing to start the election campaign until he has not approved two of his “key” projects: the Law of Impulse for the Sustainability of the Territory of Andalusia (LISTA), known as the Law of Land, and the new Law of Taxes Assigned. After the summer recess is expected a legislative push to both texts. With these initiatives closed, the dissolution of the Andalusian Parliament would be on track. Already said the deputy of Vox and its former parliamentary spokesman, Alejandro Hernandez: “The new land law and tax reform are worth a legislature”.
These laws set the agenda although next year’s regional budgets are also on the table. The Minister of Finance and European Finance, Juan Bravo, has been working since last June to close the accounts for 2022. He wields as a guarantee his willingness “to agreement, consensus and dialogue” to have the approval of the different parliamentary groups. But the proximity of the end of the legislature poses difficulties for Vox to support what would be the fourth regional accounts since the arrival of PP and Ciudadanos to the government. Bravo is aware of this circumstance and does not rule out extending the current budgets. The vice president of the Board and regional coordinator of Citizens, Juan Marín, believes that this “would not be a bad option when in 2022 there will be elections”. The question is when.
Waiting for the definitive break with Vox
The legislative capacity of the Andalusian Government needs Vox. Proof of this are the concessions that the Executive has given it to promote its ideological agenda in relation to “domestic violence” and “irregular immigration”. Ideas in exchange for support. It has been the tale of Peter and the wolf in a loop.
With the legislature in its final stretch, the threats of a definitive rupture seem to be repeated more often. This way of doing politics between the Andalusian Government and Vox has become so normalized that the Andalusians are already cured of fright at the successive ultimatums that Santiago Abascal gives the leader of the popular party, Pablo Casado in Madrid. That if the “no” of the PP to the motion of censure of Vox against Pedro Sánchez, that if the migratory crisis of Ceuta. What if, what if…
The main confrontations always come from situations from Despeñaperros upwards. It is then when the “encapsulation” of Andalusia with respect to national politics suffers. Abascal reads the primer to his regional leaders in an attempt to harden the discourse. The Andalusian Executive has always maintained its composure in the face of these onslaughts and has never played any game ball.
But one day the blood reached the river. Moreno’s first parliamentary defeat came after Vox abstained in the debate on the amendment of the entirety of the Law of Impulse for the Sustainability of the Territory of Andalusia (LISTA). The setback of the far-right formation caused its parliamentary procedure to be postponed against the plans of the Executive. The reason given by the extreme right was far from Andalusia: it was the migratory crisis in Ceuta and the reception of 13 Moroccan children that provoked the confrontation.
The weakest rival
The Andalusian government has dealt with these setbacks to boast of political stability although Vox has always pointed to the weakest rival: Ciudadanos. Arrimadas’ party has been the target of criticism due to its scandals in the city councils of Granada and Jaén. Vox has used its reticence to accuse Marin’s party of being in a process of “decomposition” that makes, in his eyes, the Executive shaky.
The position of Ciudadanos in Andalusia is delicate. It fails to capitalize on its position within the Executive and the polls predict a future in the political irrelevance in Andalusia. Hence Marin wants to extend as much as possible the legislature.
The PP has tried to palliate Vox’s attacks on its partner in government by appealing to political “responsibility”. The message is to make Abascal’s party participate in the “change” that ended 37 years of socialist governments in the Andalusian government. The Andalusian Executive has highlighted the “serious and responsible work” of Vox in Andalusia and has asked Abascal’s national leadership to take it into account and provide greater “autonomy” in the region. But, with the proximity of the regional elections it is expected that PP, Ciudadanos and Vox mark distance.
To gain time
Meanwhile, the PSOE is trying to gain time and is waiting for the “Espadas revolution”. After the mayor of Seville, Juan Espadas, took over the leadership of the Andalusian socialist federation, the strategy has been to assert its status as the most voted force in Andalusia. In defense of “the interests of the Andalusians”, Espadas proposed a “constructive opposition” to Moreno.
So far, these “bridges” have brought more doubts than certainties. More than a support, the abstention of the Socialists for the LIST to begin its parliamentary process is a pending debt that the PSOE could not validate in the last government of Susana Diaz. Neither one nor the other trust each other and the PP would only use the socialist trump card if relations with Vox become entrenched. The PSOE has offered itself as an alternative so that the Andalusian government is not “held hostage” by the extreme right, but neither will it facilitate its political agenda with the elections just around the corner.
Espadas is trying to find the balance so that the legislature is extended and at the same time claim their role in the opposition. The PSOE needs time to consolidate its new project and have any chance of unseating Moreno from San Telmo. For now, the polls make it difficult.
Through our Telegram channel we immediately transfer what is happening in Andalusia: latest news that are happening, or where, simply, we offer you a summary of the most relevant information of the day.
Subscribe to our channel through this link.
No Comment