Louisiana and the rest of the southern states along the Gulf of Mexico may soon experience enormous amounts of rain from a tropical depression. The broad area of low pressure (Invest 98L) located east of Cape Canaveral, Florida is showing strong signs of continual organization. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has upgraded this tropical system giving it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. As quickly as it has been organizing, it could become a tropical depression by days end.
An Air Force Reserve Unit will send a Hurricane Hunter Recon Plane to investigate the area of disturbance east of Florida later today if deemed necessary. All indications suggest the mission will be a go. Models are showing strong signs of continued organization as the tropical system moves slowly to the south. The NHC will likely upgrade the system further, possibly to a tropical depression status, by the end of the day.
Weather observations and meteorological analysis, along with the technologies of radar and satellite imagery, are leaning towards the possibility of further development from the tropical system located about 100 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Showers and thunderstorms will be linked with this system. Upper-level winds are also expected to continually die down allowing for further development of a tropical depression.
The spaghetti models are currently all across the board. About half of the models show the system moving to the west and into the Gulf of Mexico. Depending on if, when, and where the system crosses west over Florida, the Louisiana coast along with the rest of the Gulf coast may be spared from a possible tropical storm. There will, however, be plenty of needed showers along with thunderstorms from this tropical system.
If the system crosses Florida further south and remains somewhat organized in doing so, the warm upper 80 degree waters of the Gulf of Mexico could help fuel the tropical systems development. This system will need to be closely monitored over the next several days. Keep an eye on the NHC’s website and double check your emergency kits and evacuation plans. There still is time to get prepared.
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