As I have stated in past discussions, the weather pattern in place since late May does not look to change anytime soon. But a few “wrinkles” are taking shape which might make the local Houston forecast more interesting.
Exhibit 1 is a 500MB weakness in the ridge complex. This discontinuity aloft, hovering over much of the central and eastern Gulf Coast will wobble westward, increasing the potential for thunderstorms, particularly on Thursday and Friday. An increase in clouds and precipitation may knock temperatures down through much of East Texas. By Saturday, however, the ridge will reassert itself. And we may begin a period of continued intense heat, smog, and high humidity. As will the rest of the nation, with a huge subtropical high centered near Columbia MO.
Exhibit 2 is the real wild card: Invest 90L, which has gathered some organization upon approach to the Strait of Yucatan. Many of the computer model forecasts turn this feature into a tropical depression or small named storm. If the heat ridge core makes its expected move into the Carolinas and Virginias during the Thursday – Saturday time frame, the impulse could well move fairly close to Houston, thus providing a chance at heavy rainfall and cooler temperatures. I am not ready to make that call yet, but have posted the possible track outlines on the attached GOES EAST image. This potential “Don” could create a major change in our water budget IF it strengthens and continues to move toward Texas. That threat is far from certain, but represents our last and best hope to dent the drought. And, perhaps, ease our electric bills from excessive air condition usage!
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 97 Texas City to 101 Jersey Village
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, warm, and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows 76 Addicks to 80 Webster
Thursday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be heavy. High 93 Dickinson to 97 Clodine
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, warm, and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Lows 75 Alief to 79 Bacliff
Friday: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some storms may be heavy. High 94 South Houston to 98 Meadows Place
Saturday: Partly sunny, hazy, hot and humid. High 99, Low 78
Sunday: Mostly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. High 100, Low 81
Monday: Mostly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. High 101, Low 80