(see attached graphic and slide show)
Right up front, I have to tell you about the risks present with weather forecasting for the next week or so. Every computer model extant at the time of writing has a different opinion about how our weather will evolve over the next seven days. The NAM outlook would have us believe that a powerful hurricane by the start of our holiday weekend. The European scheme, meanwhile, seems to hint at very weak tropical development, with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms until the low pulls away toward the Mississippi Delta on Labor Day. And do not forget the “cool” element, a cold front which may be approaching on September 5!
For the moment at least, I am following the scenario painted by the less-aggressive European equation. Which basically favors the disorganized system over the Caribbean Sea becoming a tropical depression or very weak Tropical Storm Lee as late as Sunday night and on Monday. Before that time, potential exists in Houston for higher relative humidity, a gradual lowering of temperature, and scattered showers and thunderstorms that should be more noticeable on Friday, Saturday and possibly Sunday. This feature will have a chance to move inland (there is a weakness aloft over E TX and W LA on the computer models), so it is reasonable to say that the possibility for important rainfall exists this weekend.
If the aforementioned disturbance moves away next week, we can look forward to a somewhat cooler, less humid environment with increasingly sunny skies. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms would be around September 9 – 10 as another cold front approaches from the north and west.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, very hot and humid. Highs 96 Anahuac to 100 Columbus
Wednesday Night: Mostly fair, warm, and humid. Lows 77 Cat Spring to 81 Wimberley
Thursday: Partly sunny, very hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm late day. Highs 95 Winnie to 99 Sealy
Thursday Night: Mostly fair, warm and humid. Lows 78 San Felipe to 82 Liberty
Friday: Partly cloudy, not as hot but very humid. Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon and evening. Highs 93 Baytown to 97 Brookshire
Holiday Weekend Outlook
Saturday: Variable cloudiness, very humid with showers and thunderstorms likely. High 92, Low 77
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, breezy and humid. Showers and thunderstorms likely, mostly south of Interstate 10. High 88, Low 76
Monday, Labor Day: Mostly cloudy, a bit breezy. High 87, Low 73