For Texas in general and Houston in particular, there has been no real change to the forecast. The word “HOT” is the most prominent feature of the outlook. Because a massive heat ridge remains in control for the foreseeable future (i.e., through August 10) a certain monotony has set into the prediction with little range in sky condition, temperature and relative humidity. There might be a rogue shower or thunderstorm on any given day (less of a chance, however, on Tuesday and most of next week), but the accent here is on a continuation of our devastating drought.
Looking ahead, I can see that besides the ongoing heat and high dewpoints, air quality will be an issue. If you review the GFS and ECMWF model suites from 12z and 18z on July 25, you cannot help but notice that nearly all of Texas is engulfed within a strong heat ridge for the duration of the model run. At several points the actual core of the anticyclone becomes very strong, indicating a very stable domain with little mixing. That can only mean that dust, allergens, and air pollution builds up under a sunny sky, producing a photochemical smog.
While it seems likely the heat ridge complex will erode on its northern and eastern fringes (as the center of the subtropical high retrogresses), most indicators favor the hot/muggy/smoggy pattern to continue in Texas through the Labor Day weekend. I wish that I had better news, but I do not.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. Highs 97 Sienna Plantation to 101 Conroe
Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, very warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Lows 76 Security to 80 Missouri City
Wednesday: Partly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 96 Fresno to 100 Cut And Shoot
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, very warm and humid. An isolated thunderstorm is possible. Lows 75 Cleveland to 79 Pearland
Thursday: Partly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 95 Bellaire to 99 Cold Spring
Friday: Partly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. High 97, Low 78
Saturday: Partly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. High 98, Low 77
Sunday: Mostly sunny, hazy, very hot and humid. High 100, Low 79