Depending on which computer model you believe, Houston will have either modest amounts of rainfall (GGEM and GFS versions) or a great deal of water (ECMWF scheme) coming into the area beginning Thursday and ending on Tuesday. I suppose the big stumbling block in the forecast is whether a tropical depression or storm forms nearby in the Gulf of Mexico. Since I am leaning heavily toward the European equation (which has handled this region quite well in the past two weeks), the threat of heavy rain, thunder and much cooler temperatures is looming for the holiday weekend.
The blazing sun and heat may have another couple of days to go over SE TX, but an area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean Sea will be lurching north and westward toward Texas. There is actually solid agreement among these outlooks for a tropical storm, with the possibility the low stalls just below Galveston and spins moisture into the Houston metro. This rain event will NOT end the drought. But I do expect enough moisture to fall in thunderstorms to EASE the lack of soil moisture. Should the impulse move just south and west of Houston, we could actually see a staggering amount of rain, along with cases for strong winds and lightning. By the way, a major hurricane may form in the open Atlantic Ocean this week. However that system appears likely to target Maine or Nova Scotia and not involve the Lone Star State.
Notice the drop in temperatures, which will start slowly but then accelerate. A cold front will sweep through the region, lowering dewpoints under fair skies around the middle of next week. Until that frontal passage occurs, enjoy the strong possibility of liquid gold for your trees and lawns for Labor Day!
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, very hot and humid. Highs 97 Port Bolivar to 101 Plantersville
Tuesday Night: Mostly fair, warm, and humid. Lows 77 Navasota to 81 Crystal Beach
Wednesday: Partly sunny, hot and humid. Highs 95 Caplen to 99 Washington
Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, warm and humid. Lows 78 Brenham to 82 Gilchrist
Thursday: Partly cloudy, not as hot but more humid. Scattered showers and thunderstorms late day. Highs 92 Mont Belvieu to 96 Bellville
Friday: Mostly cloudy, warm, very humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 91, Low 78
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, breezy, very humid with showers and thunderstorms late day. High 88, Low 77
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Breezy and very humid. High 86, Low 76
Monday, Labor Day: Showers and thunderstorms, heavy at times. Breezy and very humid. High 83, Low 74