Want to know what the word “frustration” means? A very simple definition would be the inability to forecast (reliably) the potential for rain in Houston TX. For the past few days I have been relating my good feelings that our long-standing drought was about to go through a period of easement. Then, over the past 24 hours, one by one, the numerical models went from heavy rainfall predictions in the Bayou City to virtually NOTHING! And while I have a feeling that such an extreme turnabout will not verify (and we will get some rain shortly), the whole prediction process has become disconcerting. Mostly because some community not that far east of Houston could experience flooding amounts of rainfall.
Invest 93L is winding up over the southern Gulf of Mexico. In time, I expect this disturbance to acquire a name (“Lee”) and begin a northwest track toward the Beaumont/Port Arthur vicinity. The very same heat ridge that has fried your nerves may serve to turn the impulse north, then west for the next 72 hours. At that point, a strong trough will erode the ridge complex and start to pull the prospective Lee to the northeast. If so, everyone east of the Sabine River will get torrential rain, some stronger winds, and perhaps isolated tornadoes from a system that could reach Category 1 hurricane status. Ultimately, I think this future tropical cyclone inundates lower/middle Appalachia and the Mid-Atlantic region with as much as 10 inches of rain. And if you live in Petersburg VA or Lewes DE, that would not be a good thing.
Cooler and drier air should start to filter in late on Labor Day, with some spectacular weather in store for much of next week. Of course, we will have to pay close attention to the whereabouts and forward speed of the storm that should be “Lee”. Because a more westward position and stall would result in needed moisture for SE TX, the new desert of the U.S.!
Thursday: Partly sunny, very hot and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 96 Galveston to 100 Madisonville
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, warm, and humid with isolated coastal showers and thunderstorms possible after midnight. Lows 77 Huntsville to 81 Jamaica Beach
Friday: Partly sunny, very hot and humid. Highs 98 Surfside Beach to 102 Richards
Friday Night: Mostly fair, breezy, warm but less humid. Lows 76 New Waverly to 80 Quintana
Saturday: Mostly sunny, hot but not as humid. Highs 95 Chocolate Bayou to 99 Willis
Sunday: Mostly sunny, breezy, hot and dry. Humid. High 99, Low 75
Monday, Labor Day: Mostly sunny, windy, and cooler. High 91, Low 72
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, breezy, very warm and dry. High 89, Low 70