Another hot afternoon yesterday at the San Antonio International Airport with a high of 102º. That is 6º above the average high for the date of 96º. Expect more of the same today as temperatures should approach 102º once again this afternoon with mostly sunny skies.
Little change is expected in the weather over the next few days as the upper level ridge remains parked over South-Central Texas. Therefore, high temperatures should hover around the triple-digit mark with mostly sunny skies just about all week long.
The only challenge in this week’s forecast remains to be what will happen next weekend. Computer models continue to shift the upper level ridge westward, and weaken the ridge’s influence on the weather across the region. However, the prospects of a deep trough bringing down a cold front this far south is becoming increasingly low. Therefore, the current thinking is that widespread beneficial rainfall may not be in the offing in San Antonio, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still possible by next weekend. Any rain that comes this far south will be the leftovers of storm complexes that develop west or northwest of the region.
Tracking the Tropics
The Tropical Atlantic remains very active as the peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season approaches. There are 4 areas that are closely being monitored.
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to churn along the coastal waters of Honduras and is moving slowly westward. Maximum sustained winds as of the 4 AM CDT update are at 60 mph, and could increase slightly prior to landfall either on the Honduran or Belizean coast. The main impact with this storm will be the exceptionally heavy rain, with isolated totals reaching over 10 inches. This could provoke life threatening mudslides over the mountainous regions of Honduras, Belize, Guatamela, and possibly even southern Mexico. This storm will remain too far south to have any impact on the weather in Texas.
Another area of potentially greater concern is approaching the Windward Islands of the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center has flagged this tropical wave with an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is expected to investigate this storm later today to get a clearer picture of what is going on inside the storm.
Computer Models are still flip flopping between possible tracks of this storm, and until a closed circulation develops, forecast uncertainty will remain high. However, the latest consensus shows that this storm will develop into a hurricane as it enters the Caribbean and cross over the eastern part of Cuba before turning north and making landfall somewhere over the Floridian coast late next week. The strength of the storm at landfall in Florida would be highly dependent on the amount of land interaction it has over the Caribbean Islands. The more land this storm crosses, the lower the probability this storm makes landfall as a major hurricane. In any case, this storm will most likely stay too far east to have any impact on the weather in Texas. The upper level wind pattern late next week would deflect any Gulf storm towards the east.
Elsewhere in the tropics, there are two tropical waves that have the potential into organizing into a tropical storm. If they do develop, they will most likely stay out over the open waters of the Atlantic and not have any impact on any major landmass.
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